Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Not So Fast in discrediting SurveyUSA results

Former state legislator and Kansas party activist Benjamin Hodge thinks the SurveyUSA poll numbers shouldn't be taken lightly by the Brownback campaign.

On his Facebook page, Hodge outlines why he believes the Brownback campaign is facing such an up hill battle in November. Hodge writes:

"In a normal world, Brownback's re-election (in Kansas... in the 6-year-itch year of Obama... with ObamaCare failing) would be among the easiest re-elections in American history. Republican voters are still awaiting a strategy and a path to victory from the Kansas Republican Party leaders. Party leaders have made it clear over the last 4 years that they don't want much to do with the conservative base. "
He also links to an interesting New York Times 538 blog post breaking down the accuracy of the pollsters in 2012. The Times' Nate Silver found that SurveyUSA was actually biased to the right in 2012, for what it's worth.

 

What's happening in Kansas

Ugh. Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrisey suggests Kansas might dampen election night hopes for the Republican Party.

He cites the now-controversial SurveyUSA poll results showing Gov. Brownback lagging 8 points behind Democrat Paul Davis and a narrow Roberts lead over a crowded U.S. Senate field.

I won't rehash the whole thing, but here's the highlight:

"The GOP may have a big night at the polls, but Kansas may turn into an unpleasant surprise..."  

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Yeah, That's really not good news

I am seriously confused by the Brownback campaign.  Regular readers will note I have never claimed to be some sort of campaigning genius. I'm actually pretty bad at it. Campaigning is basically sales and I would rather eat slugs smothered in liver sauce than try to sell anyone anything. I have a serious aversion to it.

Yet, when I look at the stuff the Brownback campaign is sending out, I feel like a Harvard mind jedi at campaigning in comparison.

Today's example: The campaign is sending an email with internal poll results to the general public. The purpose of the email is to counteract a SurveyUSA poll showing Brownback 8 points behind challenger Paul Davis.

Their internal poll suggests that Brownback is ahead -- by 1 point -- in Kansas. The supposed conservative incumbent governor of arguably the reddest state in the nation is ahead by 1 point with only a few months to go. 

I don't even... 

I guess they're sharing the "good" news that Brownback is gaining in the polls? 

Our incumbent Governor should never have had so much ground to make up in the first place. 

The campaign email points out that SurveyUSA poll that shows a Davis lead uses manipulated data to draw the conclusion that Davis has an 8 point lead.  

Did this need pointing out? The Brownback email likely hit the inboxes of Republican activists. Yeah. We already knew SurveyUSA was a joke of a polling firm. Even without the Brownback campaign assurances, we already suspected the governor's race was much tighter than SurveyUSA polling let on.

I just don't get the reasoning behind releasing the internal poll. Those numbers don't strike me as anything to brag about. 

And it doesn't seem like a bad thing to let the base have a little fear wondering about the accuracy of those SurveyUSA numbers. A resolute base salted with a bit of fear is likely to work harder.

These numbers, while close, may encourage some of the base, who were tempted to sit this one out in the first place, to do just that.  I know plenty of conservatives who won't be sorry if Brownback wins in a very narrow, terrifyingly close race. If they believe that will happen, they'll be just fine hanging out at home watching NCIS instead of rallying their friends and neighbors to the polls.

Here's what the Brownback campaign SHOULD be doing: Making inroads with conservatives. How that looks, I'm not sure, but I have no problem saying conservatives are fed up with this party and specifically, this governor. If they stay home on election day, Brownback loses.  


Thursday, August 21, 2014

Thank heavens, those crazy costumed people are libs

Relax. They're liberals. 

I almost passed out when I received an email with the above photo talking about how "Women for Kansas" were featured on a television news show.

I saw the costume -- that hat!! -- and thought, oh no, Brownback campaign. Please tell me you didn't send out the weirdos to shill for your re-election.

Alas, the fruits pictured above with KWCH's Kara Sewell are NOT conservatives. I am not kidding you: when I saw that photo, my heart leapt into my throat and my cheeks flushed with embarrassment.

And then I read the email. The two pictured are Mary Knecht and Janet Wright, and I've never heard of them. Whew. Crisis averted.

Apparently, the "Women for Kansas" are hosting a convention soon with plans to "Take Back Kansas." 

The Wichita convention promises educational workshops on critical issues (so brainwashing), opportunities to help shape the future of Kansas, a rally lead by a drum line, and a banquet dinner featuring Paul Davis, Jill Docking, Jean Schodorf, Greg Orman, and Rochelle Chronister.

So, if you're really into comedy, might I suggest registering to attend?  

If you don't want to spend $160 bucks (plus hotel, if you don't live close to Wichita), you can attend the TAKING BACK KANSAS PUBLIC RALLY for free on Aug. 29 at A. Price Woodard Park in Wichita. The evening of hilarity begins at 5:30 and will feature the Cherokee Maidens with local singer legend Robin Macy. 

I am so relieved that those aren't our monkeys, and that event isn't our circus. Seriously, conservatives, rejoice.

Keen for fair tax

Keen Umbehr supports a fair tax system. And if he pulls off a victory in Kansas --  highly unlikely, but we can dream -- he told the Wichita Eagle he would demand fair tax legislation. Swoon.

He supports a lot of other stuff that doesn't make me swoon, but I just remind myself he would be working with a very conservative legislature. They would temper some of his craziest ideas. So there's that.

Here's the full story:

If he pulls off a long shot victory, Keen Umbehr said he would demand passage of fair tax legislation.
Umbehr said it was immoral for a wage earner to pay income tax, while sole proprietors, such as himself, do not have to pay income tax on their businesses. He would eliminate the income tax completely and replace it with a 5.7 percent consumption tax on goods and services.
“They have to equalize the tax code for everybody, A to Z, all at once. And failure to do that, I will veto every single piece of legislation they bring me until they fix this,” he said. “Because this is the most insidious. This makes 1.4 million W-2 wage earners the tax slaves of the state of Kansas.”

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article1239165.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article1239165.html#storylink=cpy

Renaming this blog

I should just start calling this thing, "Daily Brownback Campaign D'oh."

I am no campaigning expert, but I consider myself pretty astute when it comes to how normal humans will react. And well, the Brownback campaign is blowing the lights out of the Ick Marquee.

Yesterday, the Governor and every elected officials slobbered all over New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. I've tossed and turned this Christie campaign photo op over and over again in my head, and I don't get it.

What did the Brownback campaign hope to achieve with Christie Love Fest 2014?

 If the goal was to let the world know that Oklahoma Joe's Barbecue is the best in Kansas City, mission accomplished, I guess? (And agree.)

I suspect that wasn't the goal. If I had to spit ball, I'd say the goal was to rally moderate Republicans, and if this was 2012 or 2010, I might say that was a good plan.

But at this point, Brownback probably ought to be doing everything in his power to rally the base. The base is not happy. 

I could list all of the reasons Christie is the furthest thing from a conservative, but I'll spare you. Just know that the tough-talking New Jersey Governor is anything but.

I suppose Christie's trip to Kansas may have made for a successful fundraiser. But what does it say that the Republican Governor's Association is having to spend more than a half million bucks to help secure the second term of a conservative Governor in Red Kansas?

 

Monday, August 18, 2014

Can't stop Meme-ing

That's the latest Brownback meme. It's just so cheesy and sad and uninspiring.

I honestly think memes are valuable marketing as the American populace is dumbed down and addicted to slogans. Republicans really, really need to get a handle on the three-second sound-byte, the catchy meme, and the 140-character slogan.

I can't say exactly what makes a meme successful or more shareable, but I can tell you when I see one that isn't going to be sucessful -- SEE ABOVE.

First of all, if you're not all that politically active, you have NO idea who that guy in the photo is. Is that Paul Davis? Is it Sam Brownback? Is it Jerry Moran? Pat Roberts? I mean, the meme looks like it came from some political slickster's office, but which one? 

If you're the type who will cast your vote based on who is "cool" and down with the hipsters (and trust me, there are more of those among us than most people would ever guess) this meme is not going to bet anyone sporting skinny jeans and a beard to the polls.

The above meme, has these words beneath it:

"As governor of Kansas, I have sworn to uphold the state Constitution and protect the rights of all Kansas residents. That includes taking a stand against encroachment upon the rights and freedoms that we all cherish, regardless of the source of the threat.”

There's also a link to the governor's campaign website along with the text.


The "customer service agents" at the Department of Motor Vehicles have also sworn to uphold the state Constitution.

I truly do not understand how Republicans can be so bad at social media and its art forms. Please, please Brownback campaign, find someone, ANYONE, who can help you work with social media.

I do not feel inspired to click the link and learn more.