Friday, September 12, 2014

This won't end well

The Kansas Supreme Court will take-up Chad Taylor's lawsuit requesting to be removed from the ballot for U.S. Senate.

This isn't going to end well for Republicans. 



Best case scenario: Taylor is removed from the ballot and Democrats are forced to replace him with another Democrat on the ballot. Worst case scenario: The (liberal-loaded) state Supreme Court allows Taylor to be removed without requiring that the Democrats replace him. That is supposedly not legal, but anyone who pays a lick of attention knows that the Kansas Supreme Court is legend (wait for it) dairy in making stuff up to suit their purposes. (See state vs. Montoy and Gannon vs. State).

 Kansas' Supreme Court is no friend to Republicans. Secretary of State Kris Kobach requested that the case be heard by a district court, but alas, the liberal Supremes decided to step in. 

Should Taylor be replaced on the ballot, some savvy conservatives need to be hot on the trail to create a political action committee -- Kansas for Children, maybe? -- and that PAC should immediately begin sending mailers to Democrat likely voters touting the accomplishments of whichever Democrat is listed on the ballot. 

It appears the Roberts-Orman race will be uncomfortably close even with Taylor on the ballot.  

Do we believe this??

A recent CBS/New York Times/You Gov poll shows Gov. Sam Brownback ahead of Rep. Paul Davis by 7 points.

It's a dramatic swing from polls a few weeks earlier, which suggested a Davis lead of 7 points. (Another poll, taken shortly after the CBS/NYT poll, shows a 7-point Davis lead.)

I'm no good at parsing polling numbers, but my gut feeling says this poll is closer to reality than the ones showing a big Davis lead. After all, we are in Kansas, and no matter how hard Davis tries to paint the Brownback experiment as a disaster, Davis must be hard-pressed to find any actual examples. I mean, I live in Kansas, and the job market isn't the best one I've seen in my lifetime, but it does appear to have turned a bend. And I think if individuals truly sit and consider how their friends and neighbors are faring today versus how they were faring three years ago, there's been improvement. (And anyone who wants to blame a slow recovery on Brownback rather than on Washington should take a lap.)

As hard as the Brownback campaign appears to be trying to botch the race for Governor, the political winds are at their back, and they're going to have try harder if they really hope to lose the race. (They don't. But wow on the campaigning efforts so far. They have been la-ah-ame.)


RealClearPolitics continues to call the Kansas Governor's race a tossup, and when all polls are averaged, Davis maintains a 3.7-point lead. 

I'm just not buying it.


Monday, September 8, 2014

Puke.

Just two guys sitting around the airport thinking about the most effective ways to tax and spend. At least, that's what I think when I see this picture.

I am going to vote (very reluctantly) for Pat Roberts, but stuff like this photo doesn't make it any easier.

If it weren't an election year, I'd just think, oh nice. These two tax collectors for the welfare state ran into each other at the airport.

Since we're mere months away from a heated Roberts' election, this reads like tone deafnesses from the Roberts camp.

Here's what the campaign posted along with the photo:

Great to see my good friend Bob Dole today. Bob's endorsement meant a great deal to me. He wrote that, "When the world is in distress and there is chaos here at home, we must have proven and experienced leadership to safeguard our national security and get our economy back on a sound track. Now, more than ever, we need Pat Roberts in the United States Senate."

Friday, September 5, 2014

Chris LaCivita

So, Chris LaCivita, the "seasoned" political consultant, began following me on Twitter a few days ago. BEFORE the Roberts' campaign shake-up. (There's a reason I never throw any emails away.)

Anyway, here's what I can say about our political infiltrator who may or may not be a member of the team leading the Roberts campaign:

First, he's a former U.S. Marine. So that speaks well for him.

Second, he's from Pittsburgh. That's with an 'h.' So of the Pennsylvania version. This does not make me feel good. 

Third, he did have the good sense to follow me on Twitter. So there's that. Welcome, Chris.

Corry Bliss??

The Kansas City Star's Yael Aboulhalkah reports on Twitter that the Roberts campaign will now be run by Corry Bliss.

Yael links to a blog that doesn't have very nice things to say about Bliss. 

For what it's worth, I believe the Roberts campaign is saying that from here on out, the campaign will be run by "a team." 

Is Bliss the quarterback? Is he as nasty as the blog suggests? Let's hope not. 

As projected, Roberts' campaign shaken up

This strikes me as a terrible omen: The Roberts' campaign has fallen apart, and now the NRSC is sending in its "consultants."

The whole thing makes me absolutely sick to my stomach. Republicans shouldn't be fighting for their political lives in Kansas. 

Though Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran runs the National Republican Senate Committee, that club shouldn't even be able to point out Kansas on a map. They should never, ever need to come here. If the NRSC called Kansas a flyover state, I wouldn't even be offended. 

Go turn Iowa blue. Or spend your time and money in New Jersey or Michigan or Illinois, or even Missouri. I can't speak for all Kansans, but I don't want NRSC operatives here. 

It's a stunning irony that Roberts is in trouble, almost precisely, because he doesn't actually live in Kansas, and so to calm the political waters, the people from Washington, D.C. are coming to town to bail him out.

It's a disaster.

It's never a good idea to just react, react, react to situations. That's apparently what's going on at the Roberts campaign. There's no forethought. No consideration. Just reaction. How else to explain a Roberts campaign leader telling the media that Roberts had gone "home" to Virginia to rest after the primary? How else to explain why Roberts would hang up his campaign sneakers after winning the primary instead of actually continuing to campaign? It just reeks of Roberts feeling entitled. 

I feel badly for Roberts' former campaign manager Leroy Towns. He's a nice enough guy, and the campaign consultants aren't really the problem in the Roberts race. 

The political winds were blowing against Roberts long before he committed to running for a billionth Senate term. A savvier, less egotistical politician would have stepped aside and thrown support behind... well, someone. Instead, Roberts dug in his heels and ran again.

I don't really know anything about the new crew in town to rally the Roberts campaign. I am familiar with Alan Cobb, who at one time served as the Americans for Prosperity state director of Kansas. 

And then there's this Chris LaCivita, a "seasoned consultant," according to the news story. I'm too lazy to look into where this person got his seasoning, but I am not comforted by some outsider coming to town to "fix" the Roberts' mess. The Roberts' mess was actually CAUSED by people who lost touch with the citizens of Kansas. 



Thursday, September 4, 2014

Taylor to remain on the ballot

Sec. of State Kris Kobach says Chad Taylor will have to remain on the ballot, because Taylor did not say he was incapable of the office if elected.

The remedy for Dems? They can file a lawsuit. Do you hear circus music? Because I do. 

Send in the lawyers.